Endgames in Germany: bringing down Merkel

06 July 2018, Berlin: German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Federal Minister for Internal Affairs, Horst Seehofer (R) of the Christian Social Union (CSU) at a cabinet meeting. Kay Nietfeld/ Press Association. All rights reserved.

Earlier
this year, Angela Merkel finally managed to put together a grand coalition
between Germany's traditional mainstream parties: the conservative Christian
Democrats (CDU); and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD). It is a coalition already
living on borrowed time. 

This has
nothing to do with the fact that the SPD has been sagging in the polls, further
weakening an already declining party. It has far more to do with the CDU's
"sister party," the Bavarian CSU. 
Traditionally, the two parties have been in a joint parliamentary
group.  This, however, has not prevented
the CSU from repeatedly threatening to extend its reach beyond the borders of
Bavaria, forming a "genuinely" conservative-national party to
directly compete with the CDU. 

In recent
weeks, the CSU has revived this threat. And with good reason. The CSU has
always styled itself as the perfect expression of the Bavarian Lebensgefühl, that combination of
"laptop and lederhosen" Bavarian politicians like to evoke.  In Bavaria, the CSU considers itself an institution,
on par with the Oktoberfest and Germany's serial football champion, the FC
Bayern München. 

The CSU
has ruled the state for most of the postwar period, turning it into a virtual
one-party state. Challenges to its rule have been few and far between.  To safeguard its dominant position it was
paramount for the CSU to win majorities, enshrined in the magic formula of "50
plus" (i.e. more than 50 percent of the vote), which until recently was
one of the CSU's central dogmas.  

Majoritarian alarm bells

It is
hardly surprising if, after the disastrous results of last year's federal
election, alarm bells started to ring in the CSU headquarters in Munich. The
party lost more than 10 percent of the vote, ending up way below the 50-percent
mark. The losses were particularly dramatic in former CSU strongholds in the
eastern part of the state. It was here that the Alternative für Deutschland
(AfD), Germany's version of radical right-wing populism, achieved some of its
best results.

With more
than 12 percent of the vote, the AfD poses a fundamental challenge to the CSU. Ever
since the mid-1980s, the CSU has insisted that there must not be a
"democratically legitimated party to the right of the CSU." The
author of this dictum was Franz-Josef Strauss, the party's quasi-mythical
Übervater, uttered in response to the electoral success of the Republikaner, a
right-wing protest party founded by a prominent political journalist and TV
host.  The success of the Republikaner
was short-lived; its collapse, however, was more a result of internal dissent
and infighting than CSU strategy.

If the
CSU switched into panic mode following last year's election, it was largely
because of this self-declared claim. No one in the party leadership wants to be
held responsible for failing to prevent the establishment of a radical right populist
party to the right of the CSU. It would probably mean the end of his or her
political career in Germany. In these circumstances, attack seems to be the best
form of defense – even if that means attacking Angela Merkel. 

The
reason is obvious: the CSU places its disastrous decline in the polls squarely upon
Angela Merkel's course charted over the refugee question. Surveys have shown
that the overwhelming majority of AfD supporters, and a significant majority of
CDU/CSU voters, are deeply unhappy with the government's asylum policy. Accordingly,
the demand for a fundamental policy reversal appears a safe bet to regain
voters who have apparently gone astray. 

All or nothing

This is
particularly urgent in light of the upcoming Bavarian state elections in
October this year.  Current polls credit
the CSU with not more than 40 percent of the vote – far short of an absolute
majority.  50 percent plus thus appears
to be a thing of the past. At the same time, the AfD continues to thrive,
despite the CSU's rather clumsy attempts to steal its signature issue. Most
recent polls have the AfD on the verge of overtaking the SPD – admittedly not
much of a feat given the SPD's traditional anemia in Bavaria.

To make
things worse, recent polls also indicate that Bavarian voters are hardly sold
on the CSU's anti-Merkel strategy. This suggests that the AfD's success in
Bavaria has less to do with the refugee question than the state of the CSU.
Even CSU voters appear to be thoroughly disenchanted with a party that spends
more time and effort on internal scuffles for positions than on concrete
policies.  The image of the party's two
leading politicians, Horst Seehofer (minister of the interior) in Berlin and
Markus Söder (Bavarian premier) in Munich, is not particularly good either. Neither
appears apt to fill the shoes of their illustrious predecessors, particularly
Franz-Josef Strauss.  

The CSU's
position is weak – but unfortunately, not weak enough to not bring down Angela
Merkel.  At the moment, the CSU
leadership seems determined to play all or nothing – even at the risk of
breaking up the coalition with the CDU and, with it, putting an end to Angela
Merkel's chancellorship.  The stakes are
high, not only for Angela Merkel, but also for Germany, until recently a rock
of stability in an increasingly turbulent sea.