#LulaLivre: 4 things you should know

A tribute to Lula remains in the neighbourhood of Santa Candida in Curitiba, 100 metres from the Federal Police Headquarters. Photo: Ricardo Stuckert/ Flickr.

The campaign for the up and coming presidential
elections in Brazil officially began on the 15th of August, in a
context of political chaos and uncertainty. The elections are due to be held on
the 7th of October and according to the current polls, Lula da Silva,
ex-president currently serving a prison sentence for corruption and money
laundering charges, remains the favourite in the race.

The situation is complex given that the entire
political establishment has been affected by corruption scandals. The so called
“coup” again ex-president Dilma Rousseff, the incarceration of Lula, and the
political war these events have triggered will determine the future of
democracy in Brazil.

Here are the 4 essentials you should know in
order to understand the current political climate and the #LulaLivre (free
Lula) campaign.

1. Are we dealing with an ideologically
driven case of political persecution?

Sentenced to 12 years in jail over charges
relating to corruption and money laundering, Lula was one of the most
thoroughly investigated individuals caught up in the Lava Jato scandal
(Operation Car Wash in English) that uncovered a huge corruption network within
the state owned petrol giant, Petrobras.

Numerous analysts have pointed out that the
investigation and trial against Lula were far from neutral and objective. They
argue that the right to unrestricted and extensive defence was not respected,
and that false and illegal evidence was used. In any case, Lula’s sentence is
not yet definite. There are appeals that have been presented to higher judicial
bodies that have yet to be judged, that could even declare him innocent.

Everything points to the fact that this case
went beyond strictly judicial measures and spilled over into the political
realm, becoming a case in which due process was not strictly applied. The case
of Lula contrasts with that of Michel Temer, current president and right-wing
politician, who has also been investigated for involvement in the Lava Jato
scandal but appears to have received a different treatment from Lula. The
conviction that judges have a double standard according to their ideological
preferences is widely accepted across Brazil.

2. Lula is currently the favourite

The surveys regarding voter intentions reveal
Lula as the most popular candidate, with an approval rating of 33% according to
the latest IBOPE survey available. The same survey positions ultra-right wing
candidate Jair Bolsonaro second with an approval rating of 15%, and centre
candidate Marina Silva third with 7%. But in a scenario in which Lula doesn’t
contend in the race, it is thought Bolsonaro’s ratings would rise to 17% and
those of Silva to 13%, with 33% left blank or null.

This week, the Prosecutor of Brazil rejected
Lula’s candidacy due to the electoral law ‘Ficha Limpia’ (Clean record), that
Lula himself created during his presidency, which prevents sentenced candidates
from running in elections. On the 15th of August, the official
registry of his candidacy before the Supreme Electoral Tribunal was made with
the expectation that it will be vetoed and the PT will be forced to select
another candidate.

3. Uncertain elections

Since the return of democracy to Brazil in 1985,
there has never been so much uncertainty regarding the political future of the
nation. With 13 candidates taking part in the presidential race, and Lula as
the favourite of them all, the divided country has failed to produce any other
candidate reaching an approval rating of even 20%.

The only certainty at this point in time is that
the popular pressure of the #LulaLivre movement continues to grow as does the
demand to allow his candidacy for the October elections. However, Brazilian
electoral law could leave Lula’s status in limbo until three weeks before
election day, increasing the air of uncertainty and tension.

The fragmentation of the Brazilian electoral
system makes it very difficult to predict what will occur. The strategy of the
Worker’s Party (Lula’s political affiliation) is to maintain Lula as their
candidate until the very end. If the Supreme Electoral Tribunal vetoes his
candidacy, another candidate with the blessing of Lula will be chosen that is
able to capitalise on his support to win the elections.

4. International support is lukewarm

Despite the numerous international missions of
Dilma Rousseff to secure support for the release of Lula, support from other
countries within the region is lukewarm due to the delicacy of declaring their
position on such a complex internal matter.

The message underlying the recently launched campaign has airs of a battle between preserving a progressive democratic government in Brazil or paving the way for a right-wing government with authoritarian tendencies to govern.

Lula has received many displays of support but
only from the governments of Cuba and Venezuela, Bolivia and Nicaragua, and from Frente Amplio party in Uruguay and Spanish
party Podemos, while presidents and politicians from other governments have not
been so explicit.

The issue has been avoided in the agendas of the majority of
countries in the region, and solidarity with Lula’s cause is weak within the
international sphere.

All things considered, it seems inevitable that
tension over such unusual elections in Brazil continues to grow with the
passing of time. The message underlying the recently launched campaign has airs
of a battle between preserving a progressive democratic government in Brazil or
paving the way for a right-wing government with authoritarian tendencies to
govern.

If such a government were to win, this would only reinforce the
conservative tendency that has been spreading across Latin America, with Mexico
and Andrés López Obrador as one of the very few exceptions.