Nowhere to turn for the ELN in Colombia?

Peace negotiations
with the ELN follow a peace agreement signed in 2016 with the country’s largest
rebel group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), for which
President Santos was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

Both the Colombian Government and the ELN are facing
several dilemmas. In both the peace negotiations with the FARC, and now with
the ELN, President Santos has never been able to create the necessary ‘magic
momentum’ in public support. Decades of violence and mistrust have left scars
and a divided society.

Despite developments, including the recent transition of
FARC from an armed group to a political party, Colombian public opinion still
remains largely skeptical towards the peace process. A recent poll suggests 55% of Colombians believe the implementation of
the peace agreement is failing.

There has been an alarming increase in killings of social leaders. There has been a sharp increase, too, in the cultivation of coca and criminal activity associated with this.

The Colombian Government is also struggling to live up to
the commitments made in the peace agreement with the FARC. Much anticipated
rural developments and political reform, two of the lynchpins of the peace
agreement, have not been forthcoming.

And in many rural areas now abandoned by
the FARC, there has been an alarming increase in killings of social leaders.
There has been a sharp increase, too, in the cultivation of coca and criminal
activity associated with this.

Which way to turn?

The ELN seems lost, with limited options. They have long
since lost hope of a military victory and continued violence will hardly
increase their bargaining power. But at the same time, they have limited
expectations for change with the peace talks.

The continued killings of social leaders and the slow pace of agreement implementation make it difficult for the ELN leadership to convince the skeptics within their ranks.

The continued killings of social
leaders and the slow pace of agreement implementation make it difficult for the
ELN leadership to convince the skeptics within their ranks. Idealists within
the ELN are still willing to die for a just cause, and the cynics are enjoying
the spoils of the criminal economy.

These limited options are making them take erratic steps
in different directions. They’re advocating for a renewed ceasefire, but are
reluctant to negotiate it. They’re calling for the de-escalation of violence
whilst killing police officers. They’re appealing to public participation whilst
antagnoising public opinion.

President Santos also has difficult decisions to make.
He’s coming to the end of his Presidency. He is now unlikely to terminate peace
talks with the ELN; and even a resumption of peace talks seems unlikely now.

But a full military offensive would indicate a failure in his peacebuilding
efforts and thus would leave a mixed legacy of his presidency.

Lessons from the
past

The ELN’s latest attacks would appear to signal a dismal
outlook for peace negotiations. However, in the past, acts such as these have
marked the beginning of the end of violent conflict.

In 1998, just months after the Good Friday agreement, the
Omagh bombing, carried out by a splinter group of the IRA, paradoxically
contributed to cementing political negotiations for peace. The Madrid-Barajas
bombing, carried out by ETA in 2006 became the last violent act of the Basque
separatist group. Even their supporters criticised the act and pushed for an
end to armed struggle.

The small window of opportunity is closing. Both sides – but predominantly the ELN – need to take bold steps to save the peace process.

Despite the frustratingly slow pace, it is important to remember
that in over 50 years of conflict, peace negotiations with the ELN have never
before gone beyond preliminary talks. It is unlikely that there will ever be a
better opportunity for ELN and the Colombian Government to reach a political
deal.

The small window of opportunity is closing. Both sides – but
predominantly the ELN – need to take bold steps to save the peace process.

Which way to turn?

Lessons from the past

Lessons from the
past