After Raqqa: what will it take to get to peace in Syria?

Destroyed houses in the Al Dariya neighborhood in western Raqqa. Picture by Morukc Umnaber/DPA/PA Images. All rights reserved. Expelled
from Raqqa – or what remains of it – ISIS may be on the way to
defeat. Yet with the conditions that gave rise to it still largely in
place, the threat could merely recede to emerge in new forms on
different fronts. Despite the positive fanfare surrounding the
progress of the coalition’s campaign, the dilemmas facing western
decision-makers about how to protect Syrians and push for a lasting
end to Syria’s bitter war are as acute as ever.

While
the ruins of Raqqa have changed hands, the drivers and impacts of the
war remain open wounds. The Syrian war will not end with Raqqa, and
the Assad regime that nurtured the jihadist threat in order to cling
to power is as malignant as ever. Fearful repression remains the norm
for people in regime areas, while Russia and Iran will continue to
prop up an unrepentant and emboldened regime, using the smokescreen
of fighting ‘terrorists’ to attack
civilians and hospitals and starve the population in opposition
areas into submission. The successor to al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Nusra,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, remains strong in Idlib. Turkey has engaged
militarily to temper the ambitions of Kurdish militants. And to
compound these challenges, there is increasing evidence to indicate
that the US-led coalition is responsible for a significant
uptick in civilian casualties since President Trump’s
inauguration.

Perception of abandonment has
driven many desperate Syrians into the arms of well financed and
equipped jihadist groups since early in the war

Even
though the vast majority of Syrians despise ISIS, the destruction and
killing in Raqqa will add to the grievances of the many Syrians who
feel abandoned by the international community. For six years, the
international community has persistently failed not only to protect
Syrians from the regime, but also to get aid through to besieged and
hard to reach areas – past the criminal obstruction of the regime
and other problematic actors, and past the rules designed to stop aid
being diverted by terror groups. This perception of abandonment has
driven many desperate Syrians into the arms of well financed and
equipped jihadist groups since early in the war.

These
conditions will remain in place as long as western actors focus on
combating Syria’s fundamentalists without a more comprehensive
strategy for ending the conflict that nourished them. A new report
titled ‘Syria:
playing into their hands’ authored by David Keen for
Saferworld explains significant flaws in the west’s approach to
date, and identifies four strategic priorities for ending the war.

It is vital for forward strategy to stop killing civilians

First,
move from a ‘war on terror’ focus to a more comprehensive
strategy. From Vietnam to Afghanistan, generations of war
fighters have found that eliminating ‘evil’ groups without
addressing the factors that bred them just doesn’t work. As Joe
Biden found in Afghanistan “There’s
a balloon effect. We squeeze it, and it pops out somewhere else.”
It is vital for forward strategy to stop killing civilians, and focus
on alternatives to use of force. Even if ISIS has been beaten back,
things like the US-led coalition’s illegal
use of white phosphorous in populated urban areas will create
blowback.

There
must also be focus on the reasons why people joined armed groups. As
the Saferworld report
explains, many Syrians joined Syria’s fundamentalist groups not
because of any ideological affinity, but because they could not live
under the most
murderous actor in the war: the Assad regime. Others faced
starvation, the absence of livelihoods to feed their families and a
complete collapse of services other than those offered by
fundamentalist groups.

Second,
tackle resource scarcity. While the west has been willing to
pay for hugely expensive military action, it has failed
to provide enough aid or get it past the Assad regime’s
obstruction and obfuscation. Those fleeing from Raqqa must be
assisted on a far greater scale, or they will continue to feel
victimised and betrayed. Indeed, the whole of Syrian society needs
more support – not only relief, but also fuel for cooking,
development and livelihoods assistance. Obstruction of aid by the
regime – and latterly also Turkey
– needs to be countered. Overly generalised sanctions, which make
aid provision and economic life difficult, also need to be made more
targeted. Failure to address scarcity in Syria benefits only the
regime, war profiteers, ISIS and HTS.

Third,
redouble the search for a diplomatic solution. Western
governments must now use every ounce of leverage to guarantee the
rights of surrendering populations and push for an acceptable
transition. Russia and the regime appear ascendant, but in reality
the regime itself is weak, bankrupt, ill-disciplined and faces
enormous and virulent public opposition. If its backers, Russia and
Iran, can be persuaded to back transition, the regime may have no
choice. Russia, no fan of ‘regime change’, is unlikely to cave to
demands for Assad to go. But it likely cannot stomach a bloody and
costly commitment to uphold a hated and cruel regime indefinitely –
nor can it foot the reconstruction bill. By deploying the right
carrots and sticks, western actors can play a useful role.

Failure to address scarcity in Syria benefits only the
regime, war profiteers, ISIS and HTS

Finally,
if peace is possible, it will also require readiness to support
the emergence of new governance arrangements. Demanding regime
change will not work – but insisting on a credible plan for
changing the regime, e.g. though power sharing and decentralisation –
is essential. Western actors must not seek to
impose their vision – but should look for ways to stop Russia, Iran
and the regime from imposing theirs.
The key will be to empower and protect Syrians to consider all
options openly – assisting civil society, young people and
women to play a full and meaningful role in peace and reconstruction
processes.

Even
if a peace deal can be reached, many dangers lie ahead.
In particular, zones dominated by the
regime and particular groups could lead to persecution and
exploitation of surrendees and minorities, and Kurdish autonomy will
become a thorny question for regional stability.

If
the west
wants to overcome problems like ISIS and Al
Nusra/HTS, it urgently needs broader
peace strategies that resolve the conflicts that nourish them.

Syria:
playing into their hands is available for free
download from Saferworld’s website.