After the plebiscite, the 5 biggest challenges to peace

A woman reacts during the broadcast of the handing over of weapons of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) at the municipality of Mesetas, in Bogota, capital of Colombia, on 27 June 2017. Jhon Paz/Xinhua News Agency/PA Images. All rights reserved.

It was perhaps tempting to treat the signing of the peace
agreement in September 2016 with some euphoria. Certainly, for many in a
country having endured 52 years of civil conflict, it was a welcome cognitive
shift, and younger generations could imagine a society without the FARC for the
first time in their lives. Yet the ‘NO’ result in the plebiscite, and the
gruelling renegotiations with the opposition that followed, were a reminder
that peace will demand the same level of determination for some years to come.

This was not a surprise for the negotiating team, who had already
drawn out the implementation process in Agenda
Item 6 and were aware of the approaching challenges. “If we doze off
for just a second”, urged Lucas Carvajal, member
of the FARC-EP and part of the delegation in Havana, “we are not going to
transform anything and this whole process will be a total failure”.

Only reconciliation, as spoken of by Pope Francis in his
recent visit to the country, will heal the fractures in this highly polarized
society. There are different opinions, and undoubtedly different motives at
play, but there should be only one common objective: a lasting peace.

But beyond nurturing reconciliation, implementation of the
agreement must overcome a series of challenges. Some are operational, others
more cultural, but all pose a threat to stable and long-lasting peace in
Colombia. Following discussions with the negotiating team, democraciaAbierta
identified five of the most important challenges, and a view of how best to
approach them:

1) A 310-page agreement

Even if 310 pages of small text were considered to be hardly
digestible for the wider public, the final accord maps out an ambitious
post-conflict reconstruction project. No single agenda item is free from its
challenges. Yet perhaps the greatest challenge of all is comprehensively and
simultaneously implementing the 310-page agreement. As
the negotiation process taught us, each agenda item is interconnected to several
others. For example, it is difficult to talk about political reincorporation
(agenda item 2) without getting caught up in issues of transitional justice
(agenda item 5). Similarly, how could rural development be achieved (agenda
item 1) without addressing illicit drug cultivation and organised crime (agenda
item 4)?

Such realities transformed the negotiations from a linear
item-by-item process into a more complex structure of interconnected
decision-making. The implementation process now faces the same challenge, but
on a much grander scale.

2) Presidential elections in 2018

In March 2018, Colombians will go to the polls to elect members
of Congress and, by the end of May they will return to the polls to elect a president. Much like the referendum, it is expected to be a
highly polarized contest using the peace agreement as a political weapon. Yet
in some ways, the outcome is almost beside the point if a depolarising dynamic
is not set in place. The agreement will not be fully implemented in four years,
or even eight. Stable and long-lasting peace will likely require an ongoing
consensus on some key issues within the final agreement.

To preserve this consensus, a strong political coalition
needs to be built around the agreement, and especially around some of the fundamental
issues. This coalition will then need to build an alliance with the incoming president
and his successors, whoever it may be, as well as other groups that have
opposed aspects of the agreement – this depolarising dynamic is absolutely
necessary. This alliance must ensure a strong commitment to, and importantly
respect for, the implementation of the agreement. Only such a depolarised
coalition can prevent the agreement from being diluted or, worse, eliminated.

3) Political reincorporation

After decades of armed conflict, the transformation of the
FARC-EP into a legal political actor that is fully accepted and integrated in
the political life of the country is not something to be taken for granted.
This was one of the most difficult topics to discuss at the negotiating table,
and will of course be even harder to be fully accepted by the public during
transition and implementation. This requires a social reconciliation, one that
allows Colombians to say, “I may or may not agree with the idea of the FARC as
a political party, but I can still respect it as a legitimate actor in politics
and a contributor to a strong democracy”.

4) FARC insecurity

When a member of the FARC was observing the UN survey of the
weapon registry, he was asked by an onlooker, “How do you feel about the
process?” The FARC member’s response was both anxious and optimistic. This is because
while the final agreement presents a new and positive vision of the future for
Colombia, it also leaves behind a significant vacuum. For many, it is not clear
what is going to fill the political, social and economic role that the FARC
held for so many years. And aside from setting the terms of the FARC’s political
reincorporation, its rank-and-file members will also need to undergo their own
complicated economic and social reincorporation.

The rise in organized crime activity since the signing of
the agreement has been fairly well reported, both in Colombia and
internationally. Amongst this surge in violence, several FARC members and their
families have been victims. Elsewhere, ex-FARC members are being offered
thousands of pesos a month to join organized crime groups – which appears
likely to perpetuate violence. There is an urgent need for the government to comply
with its security guarantee both in the specified zones according to the
agreement, and beyond, filling the daunting vacuum left behind by the FARC with
opportunity and security.

5) Territorial peace

The agenda for rural reform is known as the ‘golden bridge’,
because it brought the FARC to the negotiating table. The government was aware
that without a planned transformation of Colombia’s rural areas, peace would
not be attainable. It is one of the hardest points to implement purely as it
requires the biggest commitment from the state and is expected
to have a high impact from those in the regions. It also needs a fair amount of
private investment. It sometimes looks more like an ambitious state-building
project than a post-conflict recovery – but that reflects the depth and breadth
of the conflict.

There are short-term objectives that can likely be achieved
quickly with engagement from communities. However, the government needs to be
clearer on what the potential challenges are in this area and how to overcome
them. One such challenge is ensuring security in the areas most affected by
paramilitary activity, and another is being able to present real, observable
rural transformation. The key to this is going to be strengthening local
institutional capacity. Involving the private sector, communities, and
cooperation agencies will require strong leadership and institutional design. However,
there is less ‘fiscal space’ than there was four years ago, in terms of budget
distribution flexibility, so there needs to be a real realignment of priorities.
Resources cannot continue to be solely focused on urban areas.

* * * *

We want to hear from you…

If peace is the common objective,
then all of these challenges have achievable solutions. But public
reconciliation doesn’t come without conversation, debate and education.

Do you agree with the 5
challenges? What can Colombia do to overcome them?

And what practical steps can citizens
take towards reconciliation? 

Please leave your thoughts, or
ideas in the comments section below.

Return to the timelline.